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The Pottery Barn Economy
Back in 2002, then U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell had a very blunt and direct way of framing the dilemma over invading Iraq. He called it the Pottery Barn rule: “You break it, you bought it,” he...
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Train Spotting
My first boss told me something years ago about the bond market that I’ll never forget. He said, “never stand in front of a moving train.” I think about it every time I trade. He meant that if interest...
View ArticleCoaster brakes
Back in September, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that their massive bond-buying program known as Quantitative Easing (QE) would begin to be reversed on October 1st, 2017. Given this momentous...
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A new interest rate regime
As 2017 began, bond investors speculated on the impact of the new administration’s policies. How inflationary might lower taxes, deregulation and a big infrastructure bill be for the U.S. economy? The...
View ArticleSteady Fed and a bond market curveball
The first quarter of 2018 saw activity in the bond market that hasn’t been seen since prior to the 2008 recession. Rates on the 2-year U.S. Treasury rose to 2.28 percent and the 30-year Treasury broke...
View ArticleDr. Dolittle, central bankers and the stock market
The directionless U.S. stock market in the first few months of 2018 reminds us of a creature from Dr. Dolittle, and we don’t mean “Jip” (his dog). No, we’re thinking of the pushmi-pullyu. Recall this...
View ArticleThe asteroid and the portfolio manager
Fidelity Investments has finally done it. The large Boston-based fund manager recently cut the management fees on two of their index-oriented stock mutual funds to zero—nada—NOTHING. Their arch rival...
View ArticleHeadwinds
The second quarter of 2018 revealed little news in the bond market, as the generally range-bound trading that marked previous quarters remained in place. On May 11th, the yield on the 10-year U.S....
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The Inversion Aversion
Most of 2018 played out according to plan in the bond market. Early in the year market strategist expected faster U.S. economic growth, higher inflation and a Federal Reserve that might be “behind the...
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Vladimir Ilyich Trump
“The issue of paper money is the worst kind of compulsory loan… It worsens the conditions principally of the workers, of the poorest section of the population.. It is the chief evil in the financial...
View ArticleThe Fed’s in waiting mode
With a third of the year over already, much of the market volatility encountered in late 2018 is fading in the rear-view mirror. While the China trade dispute has reemerged recently as a top risk for...
View ArticleThe Fault is ours, Ray
According to Forbes Magazine, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, is America’s second richest money manager. He trails only George Soros in the pantheon of hedge fund “masters of the...
View ArticleOur 2020 vision
Given that the stock market generally discounts events at least 6 months in advance, summer is the time for judging the upcoming market year. Investors are turning their focus to 2020 – particularly...
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Negative rates in Europe – We all fall down
The second quarter of 2019 was interesting for fixed income. The U.S. economy continued to do well, as job growth continued, and the unemployment rate dropped. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however,...
View ArticleExpect the unexpected
Calendar 2019 was an interesting and unexpected year in the fixed income market. After four interest rate increases in 2018, it was widely expected that the Federal Reserve would continue to tighten...
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The “everything” rally
The equity market rally picked up steam in the final quarter of the year as investors cheered a deescalation of trade tensions with China, signs of bottoming economic data, corporate earnings results...
View ArticleFirst Quarter 2020 Market View
During these challenging times, we want to stay fully connected with you. With this in mind, we’ve collected your most frequently asked questions about coronavirus, the economy, and the markets during...
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Markets Don’t Wait
There were two distinct phases to the first quarter. The first was characterized by an equity market surging to all-time highs. This phase quickly faded into what seems like a distant memory following...
View ArticleThe Kitchen Sink
If I’ve learned anything in the last few weeks, I now know what the Federal Reserve’s kitchen sink looks like! Since mid-March, in response to the worldwide COVID-19 crisis, the U.S. Federal Reserve...
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The “Move On” Phase
Market Update The equity market recovery that began in late March picked up steam throughout the second quarter. The S&P 500 Index jumped 20.5%, its biggest quarterly gain since the fourth quarter...
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