Zero no more!
After many months of anticipation, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised the Fed Funds rate by one quarter of a percent, from a range of 0–.25 percent to .25–.50 percent. Fed Chair...
View ArticleWhere to for stocks? A peek at 2017
Here at Fort Pitt Capital Group, we often describe the stock market as a “forward looking animal,” and with good reason. It functions as a giant discounting machine, putting a price on unknown future...
View ArticleTrump takes over
On January 20, Donald J. Trump became the 45th President of the United States, and we’re all wondering what “The World According to Trump” will look like. Given his penchant for late-night Twitter...
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Is this the end of the 30 year bond rally?
The fourth quarter of 2016 was anything but boring in the bond market. The U.S. Federal Reserve continued to play a vital role, ultimately raising short term interest rates for the first time in 2016...
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The Fed pushes – bonds push back
On March 15 the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for only the third time in 10 years, to a range of .75 percent to 1.00 percent. With Fed funds futures pricing in a 100 percent...
View ArticleThe “MAGA” saga
The defining slogan of Donald Trump’s 2016 Presidential campaign was “Make America Great Again” (MAGA). Presumably he won the election because millions of discouraged voters, particularly those in the...
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2016 story remains the same
January is prediction season, and here at Fort Pitt we like to demonstrate that we’re at least thinking about the economic future, even if we’re really not able to do much about it. Investing is about...
View ArticleZero no more!
After many months of anticipation, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised the Fed Funds rate by one quarter of a percent, from a range of 0–.25 percent to .25–.50 percent. Fed Chair...
View ArticleWhere to for stocks? A peek at 2017
Here at Fort Pitt Capital Group, we often describe the stock market as a “forward looking animal,” and with good reason. It functions as a giant discounting machine, putting a price on unknown future...
View ArticleBrexit and the bond market
Throughout the second quarter of 2016, the specter of a “Brexit” vote hung over fixed income markets. Federal Reserve policymakers said as much in mid-June, when Chair Janet Yellen admitted that...
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The 2% solution
The US economy can’t get out of its own way. Seven years of sub 3 percent economic growth have discouraged millions of middle and working-class families and deferred the dreams of the millennial...
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Risky business
We hate to admit it, but academicians have pretty much overrun the money management business since the late 1960s. A key weapon in their conquest of investor thinking is Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)....
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Same as it ever was…
Reflationary forces dominated the fixed income market as the second quarter ended. A June rate increase (to a range of 1.00% to 1.25% on Fed Funds) by the Federal Reserve, and a rise to the 2.84% level...
View ArticleNo backing down for the Fed
The events of the third quarter of 2017 were full of sound and fury, but really didn’t signify much in the U.S. bond market. Interest rates on the ten-year Treasury bond began the quarter at 2.29...
View ArticleCoaster brakes
Back in September, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that their massive bond-buying program known as Quantitative Easing (QE) would begin to be reversed on October 1st, 2017. Given this momentous...
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A new interest rate regime
As 2017 began, bond investors speculated on the impact of the new administration’s policies. How inflationary might lower taxes, deregulation and a big infrastructure bill be for the U.S. economy? The...
View ArticleSteady Fed and a bond market curveball
The first quarter of 2018 saw activity in the bond market that hasn’t been seen since prior to the 2008 recession. Rates on the 2-year U.S. Treasury rose to 2.28 percent and the 30-year Treasury broke...
View ArticleDr. Dolittle, central bankers and the stock market
The directionless U.S. stock market in the first few months of 2018 reminds us of a creature from Dr. Dolittle, and we don’t mean “Jip” (his dog). No, we’re thinking of the pushmi-pullyu. Recall this...
View ArticleThe asteroid and the portfolio manager
Fidelity Investments has finally done it. The large Boston-based fund manager recently cut the management fees on two of their index-oriented stock mutual funds to zero—nada—NOTHING. Their arch rival...
View ArticleHeadwinds
The second quarter of 2018 revealed little news in the bond market, as the generally range-bound trading that marked previous quarters remained in place. On May 11th, the yield on the 10-year U.S....
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